An approach for integrating uncertainty when selecting an anti-torpedo decoy in brand new warships

Abstract

The Spanish Navy has planned that the F-80 frigates will be replaced by the brand new F-110 frigates in 2022. The F-110 program is in the conceptual design phase and one of the objectives is to provide the new F-110 frigate with a salient anti-submarine capability. Therefore, it is necessary to choose what anti-torpedo decoy should be installed in the warship. The Joint Chiefs of Navy Staff (EMA) established some guidelines and, considering the Navy guidance's, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied. After applying the AHP method, none of the decoys obtained a better score to the other one to make a decision. This paper addresses the problem of the selection of the best anti-torpedo decoy to be installed in the new frigates. This allowed implementing a new approach, the Graphic Method of Measurement of Uncertainty Beyond Objectivity (GMUBO). This approach considers different scenarios from the AHP, quantifies the uncertainty, and evaluates which is the best alternative. The method integrates the uncertainty in the AHP and allows measuring the robustness of the selected alternative, also providing a useful graphical tool. Furthermore, GMUBO has a great ease of use and it is helpful to make decisions under uncertainty conditions.