An analysis of tourism sector seasonality and its relation to the economic cyclee: the case of Spain

Abstract

This study analyzes the changes in the seasonal trends in the Spanish tourism sector in relation to the economic cycle. The methodological originality of the analysis stems from its multi-dimensional index of tourism seasonality, which uses the DP2 indicator. This method enables us to analyze changes in the intensity of destinations' seasonality and to determine both the variables with the greatest power to explain this phenomenon and the variables with the greatest discriminant value among destinations. The results indicate that urban destinations are the most sensitive to variations in the economic cycle, primarily due to the effect of variations in the arrivals of national tourists.